Funder Learning Series

Understanding and managing overshoot risks


The Funder Learning Series features expert-led briefings and Q&As on emerging research and cross-sectoral efforts to understand and manage overshoot risks. All sessions are virtual and can be joined live on Zoom. All previous session content is also available below — including recordings, slides, and relevant reading.

▶ WATCH RECORDING — Session 20: Nitrogen Fixation
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Session 21 June 2, 2026
Upcoming

To be announced

Speaker and topic information pending. 12pm-1pm EST / 9am-10am PST.

Ocean and sea Recording available
Session 20 May 5, 2026

Nitrogen Fixation: A New Pathway for Ocean Carbon Removal

Professor Seth John

University of Southern California; Growing Oceans

Introduces NFix, a marine carbon dioxide removal pathway designed for low-cost scaling. Uses iron addition to catalyze additional ocean nutrients, addressing concerns about nutrient depletion in traditional Ocean Iron Fertilization.

#carbon-removal #CDR #ocean #marine
Aviation and contrails Recording available
Session 19 April 7, 2026

Contrails: Aviation's Near-term Climate Lever

Marc Shapiro

Executive Director, Contrails.org

Examines the science behind contrail-induced warming and navigational avoidance strategies. Persistent contrails cause roughly the same warming as 33 billion tonnes of atmospheric CO2, yet most could be prevented through minor flight adjustments at minimal cost.

#contrails #atmosphere #policy
Abstract future Recording available
Session 18 March 24, 2026

Our Probable Futures: Risk, Resiliency and Decision Making in a Changing Climate

Probable Futures

probablefutures.org

Explores climate risks from near-term manageable challenges to longer-term potentially irreversible ones. Covers risk communication strategies proven effective with executives and investors, what climate models can and cannot tell us, and frameworks for decision making.

#risk #tipping-points #policy
Glacier and ice Recording available
Session 17 March 10, 2026

Rising Faster Than Expected: Rethinking Sea-Level Forecasts

Dr. Brent Minchew

California Institute of Technology

Sea-level rise is accelerating beyond projections. Updated analyses now forecast 4-7 feet by 2100, up from IPCC's 2 feet. Examines the scientific evidence, inadequately captured uncertainties including ice-sheet dynamics, and resulting consequences.

#sea-level #risk #tipping-points
Earth satellite view Recording available
Session 16 February 24, 2026

A Large Overlooked Climate Risk: Earth's Declining Reflectivity

Dr. Phil Duffy

Former Obama and Biden White House OSTP official; former President, Woodwell Climate Research Center

Since 2000, Earth has become significantly less reflective, absorbing additional energy equivalent to about 2,400 billion tons of CO2 -- roughly three times humanity's cumulative emissions. Discusses known factors and research gaps.

#sunlight-reflection #atmosphere #risk
Youth and advocacy Recording available
Session 15 January 27, 2026

Why Youth-led Organizations are at the Forefront of Advocating for Climate Intervention Research

Operaatio Arktis & Emerging Climate Frontiers

Arctic-based and Sub-Saharan Africa-based youth-led climate organizations

A conversation with two youth-led climate organizations about their shift toward climate intervention research, how youth leadership contributes uniquely to this space, and the role of cross-regional collaboration.

#youth #governance #geoengineering
Arctic landscape Recording available
Session 14 January 13, 2026

Arctic Sea Ice and Global Climate Stability: Understanding Cascading Risks and Exploring Potential Response

Brad Ack & Dr. Virginia Selz

CEO, Ocean Visions; Director, Repair Program at Ocean Visions

Explores connections between Arctic sea ice loss and global climate stability, discusses critical tipping points in the Arctic and broader ocean system, and examines approaches to slow or reverse sea ice loss.

#arctic #ocean #tipping-points #risk
Coral reef Recording available
Session 13 December 16, 2025

Coral Reef Conservation: The Australian Marine Cloud Brightening Research Program

Dr. Daniel Harrison

Oceanographer and engineer, Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP)

Examines Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) as a potential climate adaptation strategy for the Great Barrier Reef, featuring pioneering technology development, outdoor field testing, community engagement, and regulatory oversight.

#coral #marine #geoengineering #sunlight-reflection
Risk and warning Recording available
Session 12 December 2, 2025

Derailment Risk: A Strategic Blind Spot

Laurie Laybourn

Executive Director, Strategic Climate Risks Initiative; Fellow, Chatham House

Explores how climate consequences might undermine rather than reinforce climate action. Examines 'derailment risk' -- the potential that worsening impacts could reduce humanity's capacity to respond effectively.

#risk #tipping-points #policy
Arctic ice Recording available
Session 11 November 18, 2025

The Arctic Tipping Cluster: Risk and Response

Dr. Charlotte DeWald

Director, Arctic Climate Emergencies Response (ACER) Initiative

Outlines imminent sub-2 degree C tipping points in the Arctic -- permafrost thaw, Greenland Ice Sheet, and sea ice loss -- and introduces Arctic-targeted interventions such as mixed-phase cloud thinning and sea-ice stabilization.

#arctic #tipping-points #geoengineering
Government building Recording available
Session 10 October 21, 2025

The first government research effort to predict and prevent climate tipping points

Ilan Gur, Gemma Bale & George Horner

CEO, ARIA (UK); ARIA Programme Directors

Introduction to two ARIA initiatives: Forecasting Tipping Points and Exploring Climate Cooling Programs. Explores how philanthropic funders can help catalyze greater government leadership in climate research.

#tipping-points #governance #policy
Earth from space Recording available
Session 9 October 7, 2025

Evaluating climate tipping points: research gaps and opportunities

Joshua Elliott

Chief Scientist, Renaissance Philanthropy; Director, ARC Initiative

Addresses shortcomings in existing climate action models, identifies critical risk categories, and introduces preliminary findings from an initiative designed to assess climate tipping point risks and direct resources toward addressing them.

#tipping-points #risk #governance
Climate movement Recording available
Session 8 September 25, 2025

How catastrophic climate risk fits within the larger climate action movement

Kim Stanley Robinson

Author of The Ministry for the Future

Kim Stanley Robinson, author of one of Barack Obama's favorite books of the year, examines how catastrophic climate risk initiatives integrate within the larger climate action movement.

#risk #policy #tipping-points
Ocean Recording available
Session 7 September 9, 2025

Open-system carbon dioxide removal

Dr. Antonius Gagern & Dai Ellis

Executive Director, The Carbon to Sea Initiative; CEO, Cascade Climate

Overview of the open-system carbon dioxide removal ecosystem -- what open-system CDR entails, why it suits scaling efforts, advantages and disadvantages, recent research developments, and current obstacles.

#carbon-removal #CDR #ocean
Atmosphere and sky Recording available
Session 6 August 12, 2025

Climate systems engineering research today

Dr. David Keith

Leads Climate Systems Engineering initiative (CSEi), University of Chicago

Overview of climate systems engineering as a field -- how sunlight reflection fits into a larger climate strategy and its relationship to carbon removal, plus practical engineering aspects of stratospheric aerosols and open ocean alkalinity.

#geoengineering #sunlight-reflection #carbon-removal #ocean
Sunlight through atmosphere Recording available
Session 5 July 29, 2025

Sunlight Reflection: What we know, what we don't know, and the research ahead

Dr. Daniele Visioni & Dakota Gruener

Assistant Professor, Cornell University; CEO, Reflective

An introduction to the current state of scientific research on sunlight reflection, with particular emphasis on stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI).

#sunlight-reflection #SAI #geoengineering #atmosphere
Atmosphere and pollution Recording available
Session 4 July 15, 2025

Superpollutants: The other half of warming

Erika Reinhardt & Dr. Ilissa Ocko

Co-founder, Spark Climate Solutions; Senior Climate Scientist, Spark Climate Solutions

Explores the climate impact of super pollutants including methane, nitrous oxide, and HFCs -- their contribution to warming, near-term climate risks, and strategies for reducing these emissions.

#superpollutants #atmosphere #risk
Atmosphere Recording available
Session 3 July 1, 2025

History of Geoengineering and the evolving climate interventions landscape

Oliver Morton

Senior Editor, The Economist; author of The Planet Remade

Historical overview of climate intervention strategies and a reappraisal of alternative approaches to managing Earth's energy systems as global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees C of warming.

#geoengineering #policy #sunlight-reflection
Glacier and ice Recording available
Session 2 June 17, 2025

Managing the risk of catastrophic sea level rise

Dr. Brent Minchew

MIT glaciologist

Examines the threat of catastrophic sea-level rise from glacial collapse and potential options to stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

#sea-level #arctic #risk
Earth from space Recording available
Session 1 June 3, 2025

An honest look at where we are: Accelerating warming and climate system feedbacks

Dr. Phil Duffy

Former lead Biden White House climate scientist

A comprehensive look at the accelerating pace of warming and potential adverse feedback loops in the climate system.

#tipping-points #risk #atmosphere

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